Sunday, December 16, 2012

Why a Late Credit Card Payment Affect My Credit Score

Amongst all the bills that you have to compulsorily clear every month, credit card bills should be your top priority. One late payment have the potential of hurting your credit score badly and cost you a lot in the long run, even if it was a result of a sheer mistake. However, if you are already aware of the fact that you would not be able make payment within time, then you should try calling them up and negotiate with them to control the damage.  

The reason
The credit companies promote the different range of credit cards available to the diverse categories of customers not out of altruistic motives. The reality is that they are providing you with all these facilities because they are going to earn a grand profit by providing you with the money when you are in need of it.

Due to all the defaults in payment from the various clients, they approximately loose out about 60 billion USD every year. The strict measures that are being taken up by the credit card companies in case of late payment even for a day is owing to the fact that they categorize all the late payer as defaulters. Therefore, even if you have defaulted only once it is definitely going to impact your credit score.

Impact of late payment on credit score
The credit score is primarily a numerical digit that is used for expressing the credit worthiness of an individual. The credit score of an individual is basically dependent on his payment history of the loans and the credit cards as well as credit report. Approximately, 35% of the credit score is dependent on your credit card payment records of the past.

Thus late credit card payment is certainly going to have a negative impact on the credit history of the individual. Though any default in credit card bill payment is not informed to the bureau till 30 days but after that serious actions are taken. The credit score will drop according to the different tiers of default payments and it generally varies between 60 points to 110 points.  

Impact of lower credit score on interest rates
A good credit score increases the credit worthiness of the person i.e. he or she is being regarded as a dependable individual who will fulfill his or her responsibility to give back the borrowed money in time. An individual with better credit score enjoys a lot of benefit like lower interest rates and flexible terms. However, if your credit score suddenly drops down it is automatically going to affect the interest rate of the loans that you have already taken as well as the interest rates on your credit card. Therefore in the long run you will end up losing a lot of excess money just for your negligence.

Once you have been tagged as a defaulter, then it will take at least one year to regain back your previous score. But it can stretch up to three years depending on the gravity of the problem.

Therefore, a small negligence on your part has the potential of bringing about a massive difference in your current financial standing. So play safe and be more responsible to avoid any such situation.

About the Author:
The above article is written by AJ who is associated with Page Once as their supporting staff. In her free time, she loves to share her knowledge via her articles on different niche including finance and politics. She recommends only Cox cable bill pay for smoother and hassle free transactions advises to check www.cox.com for more details.

Monday, November 26, 2012

How To Prepare Yourself For Mortgage Rate Increases

If your existing home mortgage is a variable rate mortgage, you may be bracing yourself for an upcoming rate adjustment. Rate adjustments can work in your favor in certain instances. For example, if rates have decreased, your mortgage payment may decrease. However, if rates have increased, your mortgage payment may also adjust upward. A mortgage rate increase and the associated increase in your mortgage payment can be difficult to bear. However, by taking a few key steps, you can most easily prepare yourself for this increase.

Understand How Your Payment Will Change

A change to your mortgage payment will affect your personal budget, and you must plan for this change. If you are aware that your mortgage rate and payment are about to change, it is important that you talk to your lender and learn what the rate and payment will adjust to. You will not be able to effectively plan for this change until you know what the change will actually be. In some cases, the change may be nominal. In other cases, however the change can be rather significant. If you are already living on a tight budget, a rate increase can result in financial hardship.

Adjust Your Budget

It is best to make budgetary changes now before your first increased mortgage payment is due. This can prevent you from experiencing financial hardship or a budget shortfall. Review your budget and determine how much money you will need to trim from your expenses to accommodate the higher payment. Then, consider trimming expenses like your cell phone bill, your cable bill, your entertainment expense and others. These expenses are often easiest to trim. However, you can also shop for lower insurance rates, consolidate credit card debt and more to find extra money in your budget.

Refinance Your Home

Another option to consider is to refinance your home with a fixed rate mortgage. Mortgage rates are currently exceptionally low, and with a fixed rate mortgage, you can lock in a low rate for the life of your mortgage. This can prevent the need to make future budget changes if rates adjust again. Even a small adjustment to a variable rate mortgage can have a big impact on your budget. It is important to be aware of pending changes to your mortgage rate and monthly payment if you have a variable rate mortgage. You also need to make changes to your personal budget to account for the change in your monthly mortgage payment or consider refinancing with a fixed rate mortgage. By following these tips, you can avoid experiencing a cash shortfall when your mortgage payment adjusts. For more mortgage tips and information, you can visit www.MortgageRates.ca.

Thursday, October 4, 2012

Daily Dow Jones: More Range Bound Consolidation Within The 13200-13700 Bands.

Dow Jones Recap: Dow Jones ends flat ahead of key job data
The Dow Jones was higher by as many as 54 points after better-than-expected readings on the ADP report and ISM services data. Nevertheless, early gains were reduced to 12 points as ongoing worries over a global slowdown kept investors on edge following disappointing China’s PMI services index and the euro zone composite PMI data. Sentiment remains cautious ahead of the nonfarm payroll reports (5 October) as well as the kickoff of 3Q12 earnings next week, following another negative forecasts from Dow Jones' components i.e Hewlett Packard, which saw its price nosedived 13% to US$14.91.  

Daily Dow Jones - More Range Bound Consolidation Within The 13200-13700 Bands. DowJones04-10-2012

Source: StockCharts.com



Crude Oil Outlook - More Downside Consolidation Towards US$80-85 Before Technical Rebound

Crude oil outlook: More downside consolidation towards US$80-85 before technical rebound
After our “Downside bias” call on crude oil prices on 18 Sep, oil prices had tumbled from US$96.6 to US$88 yesterday. The fall was in line with slowing global demand amid weakening economic data and an EIA report that U.S. domestic oil output had hit the highest level in nearly 16 years last week.

 After the 4% overnight plunge, daily and weekly technicals are deteriorating, signaling further downside consolidation moving forward.

We expect more pullback towards 84.9 (76.8% FR from top 114.8 and low of 75.7) and 81.9 (200-w SMA) in the short term. More solid supports are 79.6 (weekly lower Bollinger band) and 77.3.

Immediate resistances are 90.0, 92.8 (14-d SAM) and 94.6 (30-d SAM). A more formidable resistance zones are 96.2 (200-d SMA) and 99 (daily upper Bollinger band).  

Daily WTIC - Downtrend Amid Bearish Technicals. 04-10-2012

Source: StockCharts.com

KLCI - Profit Taking Activities Were Well Absorbed

Bursa Recap: KLCI eases 1.3 points from -10.6 points intraday
Asian markets ended mixed as lingering uncertainty over the timing of a bailout for Spain, downbeat PMI’s services data from China and a widest trade deficit in 3.5 years from Australia turned investors into cautious mode.

After surging 38.6 points in the last 6 sessions, Bursa Malaysia ended 1.3 points lower on profit taking. In a volatile trade, KLCI fluctuated within a low of 1640 (-10.6 points) before mitigating its losses at 1649.8, dragged down by plantation heavyweights i.e. SIME (-33 sen to RM9.41), KLK (-114 sen to RM20.90), IOICORP (-4 sen to RM4.97) on plunging CPO prices lately.  

FBM KLCI outlook: Profit taking activities were well absorbed
The sharp profit taking fall yesterday was not unexpected given that the KLCI had rebounded 3.8% from a low of 1595 (24 September) to as high as 1653.8 (3 October). However, the selling was well absorbed.

As long as KLCI maintains its posture above mid Bollinger band, we remain cautiously optimistic that KLCI will continue its gradual uptrend and test all time high of 1656 again as technicals are on the mend. A breakout above 1656 will drive index higher towards 1670 (weekly upper Bollinger band). Supports are 1641 (5-d SMA), 1636 (30-d SMA), 1630 (mid Bollinger band).  

Daily KLCI: Market Undertone Remains Firm To Retest 1655-1660 Zones. FBM KLCI 04-10-2012

 Weekly KLCI: Immediate Resistance At Upper Bollinger Band Near 1670. FBM KLCI 04-10-2012a


Source: HLIB Research

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Tips To Get The Best Price When Shopping For a Car

Few will deny that a new car is a major purchase. Whether you have saved up your money for months to make your upcoming purchase with cash or you will be financing your purchase, you want to get the best deal possible on your new car. While many people focus on negotiating tactics when buying a new car, there are a few other steps you can take to ensure you don’t pay more than necessary on your purchase.

Choose the Best Time to Shop

Timing your purchase is a key aspect of getting a great deal on your car. First, consider the fact that car dealerships generally require their salespeople to generate a certain number of sales per month. If you visit a car dealership at the end of the month, you may be approached very quickly by a salesperson who hasn’t yet met his quota and who is eager to make a deal. Another great time to buy a car is during times when nobody else is shopping. These may be times close to the holidays, during spring break and more. When business is slow, a dealership may be more willing to negotiate with you.

Get Your Trade-In Ready

In most cases, a car buyer will trade in a current vehicle as a part of the new car buying process. The amount of money that you receive for your trade-in will affect the total cost of your new purchase. With this in mind, it makes sense to get your car ready to sell to the dealership. Clean out all of the trash. Remove spots and stains from upholstery. Clean and wax the exterior. If you know the vehicle is in need of small repairs, consider making these repairs before trading it in.

Downplay Your Financial Status

Another key point to consider is your image. Many people dress nicer when making a new car purchase, but giving the impression that you have personal wealth or are well-off is not something you want to do when buying a car. Car dealerships will be less likely to negotiate with you if they believe they don’t have to. One of the first questions that a car salesperson will ask is what you do for a living. Rather than give your specific job title, simply state what industry you work in. When you fill out a car loan application, be honest about your income and assets, but don’t inflate the figures. Getting the best price on your car is important. If you will be using a car loan to pay for your purchase, the price you pay for your car will affect your monthly budget for years to come. While you may make your best effort at negotiating a fair price for your purchase, everyone will run into money problems from time to time. One way to overcome your money issues is to borrow money with a bad credit loan company. Loans for bad credit can provide you with easy access to money right away, but you will need to make plans to pay the money back in the near future. We recommend applying for loans with bad credit at http://www.loanswithbadcredit.ca.

Save Money on Back To School Supplies

At first glance, it may seem like buying a few spiral notebooks and pencils would not cost a lot of money. However, any parent who has a child old enough to attend school understands that the cost of school supplies can add up. For parents with multiple kids in school, the cost can grow exponentially with each child. Finding a way to save money on back to school supplies is a necessity. By following these key tips, you can get your kids the school supplies they need without emptying your bank account in the process.

Look for Sales Throughout the Year

Some stores run back to school sales right before school starts, and these can help you to save a considerable amount of money on your purchases. However, these sales also generally create a run on school supplies. Every other parent is awaiting the sale, and many will make a mad dash to the store to take advantage of these sales. Finding the items you need amidst crowded aisles is difficult. Furthermore, the store may have run out of the supplies you need before you arrive. While making use of these sales can yield savings, another option to consider is to shop at sales throughout the year. Consider that crayons, markers, spiral notebooks and more are in less demand earlier in the summer months or while school is already in session. You can find savings at these sales without concern for the store running out of merchandise.

Stock Up on Supplies

When you do find supplies on sale, consider stocking up on the items you need. While each year may bring the need to buy different supplies, the need for basic supplies doesn’t change. These basic supplies that are needed for most school years include pencils, pens, notebook paper, markers, folders and spiral notebooks. If you find these items on sale throughout the year, buy a stack of items and store them in your home. This way, you will have extra supplies to replenish your child’s stock throughout the school year, and you will also avoid the need to stress out your budget by purchasing them all in the weeks immediately before the start of a new school year.

Use Cash Back Rewards

While these tips can help you to reduce the price you pay for school supplies, you may also be able to earn cash back rewards on your purchases. Many credit cards have a cash back reward program that allows you to earn money with each purchase you make. The key to making money with these programs is to pay your credit card balance off in full each month. This way, you will avoid paying interest charges while enjoying the benefits of cash back rewards. Even with the best efforts to save money on back to school supplies, the cost can be significant. You can consider taking out fast money loans to help pay for these expenses. Quick Canadian money loans are available through an online lender, and they can provide you with an immediate source of cash. You can buy the school supplies your children need now, but you should plan to pay the loan back in full by the due date. Otherwise, you could be subject to additional fees. For more information on money loans, we recommend visiting http://moneyloans.ca.

Sunday, September 16, 2012

Save Money with Cheap Movie Tickets

Many people grew up going to the movies with their families, and they developed a love for the cinema that continues on today. Going to the movies on your own or with family or friends is a great way to spend your free time, but it can be expensive. The price of a movie ticket has increased substantially over the years, and you may be trying to find a more affordable way to enjoy taking in a movie at the theater from time to time. There are several ways that you can reduce the expense of going to the movies.

Employer Discounts

One way to save money on movie tickets may be found through your employer. Many employers provide their employees with a number of perks and benefits, and some major employers provide discounted movie tickets as part of the company’s benefits package. Simply talk to your fellow co-workers or your human resources department to learn if your company offers discounted movie tickets.

Coupon Books

The next time you are offered a big coupon book full of savings and discounts, consider purchasing it. While there is a cost associated with buying these coupon books, they are filled with useful coupons that you can use throughout the year to save money. While many of the coupons may be for things like meals at restaurants, discounts on a car wash and more, there are usually coupons for different movie theaters too. You typically can flip through the book before buying it to check out the possible savings.

Coupon or Discount Websites

You may be familiar with a few websites that are designed to bring you discounts and coupons, but you may not realize that some of these websites feature savings on movie theater coupons. Many feature coupons that can be printed out and used for savings at the grocery store, retail stores and restaurants. Some have group savings that you can opt into. If you spend some time getting to know more about the savings these websites offer, you may discover savings on movie theater tickets too.

Movie Theater Mailing Lists

Another money-saving idea is to visit the websites of movie theaters close to your home. These theaters may have an email newsletter that you can subscribe. Movie theaters often provide special savings offers to those who have subscribed to their newsletter. Along a similar fashion, you can follow your favorite movie theaters on social media websites to stay informed about special deals and offers that can save you additional money. Saving money at the movie theater can take some time and effort. However, the savings that you can enjoy through the use of these ideas can be significant. They can help you to enjoy an afternoon or evening out without emptying your wallet. From time to time, however, you may run into money problems. When you need to borrow money, you can apply for a short term loan online. Instant short term loans can provide you with cash within a few hours, and you can use the money to cover your expenses. Keep in mind, however, that this money will need to be paid back soon. We recommend choosing a trustworthy lender such as ShortTermLoans.ca

Saturday, September 8, 2012

How To Graduate Without Student Loan Debt

Student loan debt is a growing problem. The rising cost of a college education coupled with ever tighter finances for many families is forcing many college students to take out student loans to pay for classes and books. Many are also using student loans to pay for some or all of their living expenses while in college. While student loans can help you to make paying for college more affordable, these are loans that you may be paying on for many of your working years after college. Avoiding them now while you are in college can help you to enjoy a more financially secure life in the future. How can you graduate without student loan debt?

Live With Your Parents

One step that you can take involves living with your parents. When you live with your parents while in college, you don’t have to pay room and board at a dorm, and you don’t have to contend with utilities, buying your own food and other expenses. Living expenses can quickly mount, but you can eliminate the need to pay for most of them by simply staying under your parents’ roof. While there may be more of a commute for you when you live at home, the cost of a commute is often negligible compared to the cost of paying for living expenses when living on or just off campus in your own place.

Live Frugally

Another way to save money while in college and avoid falling into debt is to live frugally. College is a time to enjoy yourself, and this is a time to make great memories with friends as a young adult. However, going out to eat regularly, going to nightclubs or bars, buying new clothes and more can create a lifestyle that is costly to maintain. You can choose to wear your clothing until it needs to be replaced rather than constantly update your wardrobe. You can also go out with your friends only periodically rather than every time they do in order to save money on your entertainment expense.

Get a Part-Time Job

Even when you choose to live at home and live frugally, you will still have the actual cost of your college tuition and books to contend with. In order to avoid debt, you need to have the financial means to pay for these expenses on your own. One option to consider is to get a part-time job. You can work regularly each week and save up a portion of your paycheck to be used for tuition and books each semester. Work additional hours during your semester breaks when you have time to do so. Even with the best efforts at managing your expenses and working at a part-time job, you may still run into money problems. When you need cash right away, consider applying for quick cash loans from a loan company. Instant cash loans can provide you with an immediate source of money to pay for unexpected expenses, a shortfall for your tuition or books and other related expenses. You will have to pay the money back, but these loans can provide you with the immediate cash you need. We recommend visiting http://cashLoans.ca to receive a loan today.

Thursday, June 28, 2012

Is Your Car a Luxury or a Necessity?

If you ask Canadians today whether their car is a luxury or a necessity, most will readily tell you that it is a necessity in their lives without hesitation. However, with the average Canadian household debt skyrocketing to record levels in recent years, reaching over $100,800 per household in 2011, a closer look at what is a necessary versus a luxury may be in order. Many people are trying to save money and eliminate debt, and getting rid of the car may be good place to start.

The Cost of Driving

The cost of driving is higher than what you may think. Your car loan is perhaps the largest expense associated with driving, and many people take on a car loan payment that equates to $400, $500 or more per month for a 5-year or 6-year term. In addition to this financial commitment, drivers pay other costs. The average cost of a car insurance premium varies by location in Canada, but it is not uncommon for a driver to pay over $1,000 per year in insurance. This is coupled with the regular cost of filling up the tank, vehicle repairs and maintenance and more. If you crunch the numbers on your own vehicle's total monthly costs, you may be surprised to learn that the cost of driving your own car each month may exceed $600 or $700 per month, if not more.

Other Means of Transportation

Driving your own car does provide you with your own personal mode of transportation, and there is considerable convenience in this. However, many people do have other options available to them. For example, many are able to ride a bike to work many months of the year and can carpool with a co-worker or friend during the colder months. Others are able to make use of local or city transportation services. Still others may be able to consolidate from a two-car family down to a one-car family with minor adjustments. Would it be convenient to get rid of a car? Likely not. However, this $600, $700 or more per month cost of driving is not a necessity for most. It is necessary to consider this expense as a cost of a convenience in your life if you do have another option to consider.

What Could You Do With That Extra Money?

Because the cost of driving is so high for most drivers, you should consider what you would do with that extra money freed up in your budget each month. Owning and driving a vehicle is a choice for most rather than a necessity. When you make the choice to spend money on driving a car, you do give up the opportunity to use that money for important things like reducing debt. Consider for a moment how quickly you would be able to pay off unsecured debt balances if you contributed an extra $600, $700 or more each month to paying your accounts off. Whether you make the decision to keep your car and enjoy the convenience it provides or you make the decision to give up ownership of your car and reduce debt balances more quickly, you may consider talking to a Canadian debt company for further assistance with debt reduction and money management. If you want to know how to get out of debt more quickly and easily, visit debt.ca for more information.

Thursday, May 10, 2012

Dow Jones vs. VIX - Further Selldown Towards 12500-12600 Levels

Wall Street Recap: Dow Jones drops 97 points to record its 6th straight decline
The Dow Jones tumbled as much as 183 points intraday before ending 97 points lower as investors fretted about political uncertainty in Greece and the escalating borrowing costs of Spain and Italy.

Equities trimmed losses as Europe’s bailout fund said it will pay the next installment of €4.2bn aid to Greece today, the remaining €1bn before June and will be disbursed depending on the financing needs of Greece.

Dow Jones has shaved 444 points or 3.3% over the last six sessions as risk-averse investors piled into the dollar and U.S. Treasury.

Wall Street Outlook: All eyes on Bernanke tonight
The Dow Jones closed below its uptrend channel support as well as its 50 SMA near 13057. The index also briefly dipped below the 100-d SMA of 12818 to as low as 12750, which give initial signal that the trend is about to change. Moreover, the VIX index is suggesting that the Dow is likely to experience more downward consolidations from its peaks as FIG 5 shows that previous three peaks (which was subsequently followed by sizeable corrections) since 08, for the Dow were accompanied by bottoms for the VIX.

All eyes are on Bernanke speech tonight in anticipation of more stimulus program following a wave of disappointing U.S. jobs data and political backlash in Europe.

A disappointing speech by Bernanke without clearer signals of more stimulus is likely to witness a breakdown below the crucial neckline support of 12710, signifying a double top reversal and could trigger further selldown towards 200-d SMA support.  

Daily Dow - A Breakdown Below The Crucial Neckline Support Near 12710 Will Signify A Double Top Reversal With Potential Correction Towards 200-D SMA
  DowJones10-05-2012  

Weekly Dow Jones - Crucial Support Near 30-W SMA To Prevent Further Selldown Towards 50-W SMA
  DowJones10-05-2012a

 Dow Jones vs. VIX - Further Selldown Towards 12500-12600 LevelsDowJones10-05-2012b


 Source: HLIB Research
             StockCharts.com

Monday, April 16, 2012

Dow Jones Outlook: More Downward Consolidation

Wall Street Recap: Dow Jones tumbles 137 points and ends 1.6% lower wow
Following a two-day rally of 271 points, the Dow Jones stumbled 137 points to end the week 1.6% lower for a 2nd straight weekly decline. Sentiment was affected by a below-par 1Q12 China GDP growth and April’s slower consumer sentiment index coupled with escalating credit default swaps on Spain, overshadowed a batch of better-than-expected earnings results by JP Morgan and Wells Fargo.

Meanwhile, commodities and bond prices dropped, as investors sought the safety of government debts.

Dow Jones outlook: More downward consolidation
Wild swings will prevail on Wall St this week amid headwinds from higher gas prices, a European downturn and slower Chinese growth. Key economic announcements in focus are retail sales, empire state mfg survey, IPI, housing starts and Philly Fed index.

Meanwhile, investors will see whether last week’s 1Q12 positive earnings momentum will continue. Among the marquee names on this week's earnings calendar are Intel, Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Cola, DuPont, Microsoft, American Express, General Electric, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

Technically, indicators are pointing towards more downward consolidation. If Dow falls below recent low of 12710, selling pressure could accelerate and take prices lower towards weekly mid Bollinger band of 12683 and 30-w SMA of 12310. Resistance levels are situated at 13000-13100.

Daily Dow Jones - Downside Bias Unless 50-Days SMA Resistance Is Violated
DowJones16-04-2012

Daily Dow Jones - Downside Bias Amid Bearish Indicators
DowJones16-04-2012a



Source: StockCharts.com

KLCI - External Woes To Exert Downward Pressures

Bursa Recap: KLCI ended higher on local funds support
Asian markets rose in the morning sessions following a strong overnight rally on Wall Street and European markets. Despite China announcing a lower-than-expectation 1Q12 GDP of 8.1% (consensus: 8.4%), Asian shares held steady as the discouraging data lifted hopes of fresh monetary easing by Beijing.

Amid strong buying support on Tenaga following its positive 1H12 results, KLCI gained 1.9 points at 1603.1. Despite clouded by mostly negative external developments, KLCI inched up by 4.3 points in a holiday-shortened week, mainly on local fund buying support with local institutionals accounted for average 56% of last week’s daily trading participation value.

FBM KLCI outlook: External woes to exert downward pressures
In the wake of negative external woes, KLCI’s upside potential is limited ahead of the looming general election. However, we see no immediate risk of significant reversal due to buying support from government-linked funds, driven by acceleration of the ETP announcements. Immediate resistance is historical high at 1609, followed by the weekly upper Bollinger band of 1624.

Immediate supports are 14-day SMA (1595) and mid Bollinger band (1590). A breakdown below 1590 will drive KLCI lower towards supports at the 30 and 50 day SMAs at 1586 and 1574 respectively. We reiterate that investors should take opportunity of a sideways market to top-slice and turn more defensive.

Daily KLCI - Sideways Consolidation.
FBM KLCI 16-04-2012

Weekly KLCI - Immediate Resistance Targets Near 1630 Points.
FBM KLCI 16-04-2012a



Source: HLIB Research

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

CPO Outlook: Short Term Getting Overbought

CPO outlook: Short term getting overbought
As indicated by our bullish CPO commentary on 27 March, Malaysian palm oil futures rallied 1.1% to RM3621/MT, a fresh 14-month high on Tuesday, as traders continued to make bullish bets on the edible oil after industry data showed healthy export demand and lower stocks.

MPOB said March’s inventory fell to 7-month low as export growth outpaced production whilst cargo surveyor data also pointed to higher exports for the first 10 days of April compared to a month ago as major importers including Europe, China and India ramped up buying.

According to monthly chart (FIG5), medium to long term outlook remain promising as indicated by bullish technical indicators. Nevertheless, we could see some pullback in the near term as daily and weekly technical indicators are getting overheated. Immediate resistance target is RM3760 (monthly upper Bollinger band and downtrend line) whilst long term targets are RM4000-4100. Short term retracement supports are 10-d SMA (RM3534) and mid Bollinger band (RM3467), followed by 10-w SMA (RM3375).

Uptrend will be disrupted if prices break below RM3400.

Daily CPO - Getting Overbought
CPO 12-04-2012


Weekly CPO - Resistance Near RM3750-3800 Zones

CPO 12-04-2012a



Source: HLIB Research

Daily Dow Jones: Technical Rebound May Continue As Indicators Are Bottoming Up

Wall Street Recap:Dow Jones halts a 5-day plunge
After a 5-d slump of 548 points, the Dow Jones jumped 90 points to 12805, as concerns about Europe eased and hopes for a better-than-expected earnings season rose. On late Tuesday, Alcoa reported a surprise 1Q12 profit, lifting hopes for corporate earnings as the quarterly reporting period gets underway. This week’s other key earnings announcements include Google, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo while key economic reports are consumer sentiment and CPI.

Meanwhile, European markets also recovered as investors welcomed declining yields on Spanish and Italian bonds after Spain’s prime minister said the country wouldn’t need a bailout.

Daily Dow Jones - Technical Rebound May Continue As Indicators Are Bottoming Up
DowJones12-04-2012



Source: StockCharts.com

KLCI - More Sideways Trading As Dow Rebounds

Bursa Recap: KLCI ends higher despite regional decline
Asian shares markets dropped as investor sentiment were weakened following a 1.7% plunge on Dow Jones over global growth prospects and persistent worries about debt restructuring in the euro zone amid spiking Spanish and Italian bond yields.

Prior to a public holiday on 11 Apr, KLCI closed 5.9 pts higher at 1597.2, spurred by active buying on blue chips such as GENTING (+24 sen to RM11.08), IOICORP (+11 sen to RM5.40), PBBANK (+4 sen to RM13.72), AXIATA (+2 sen to RM5.34) and MAYBANK (+2 sen to RM8.86) in anticipation of positive economic data in trade and manufacturing statistics.

FBM KLCI Outlook: More sideways trading after Dow Jones rebounds
The KLCI may retest 1600 today amid overnight rebound on Dow Jones and European markets. However, in the absence of local catalysts and weak buying momentum, upside will be limited as external uncertainties prevail.

Immediate resistance levels are 1600-1610 whilst immediate supports are mid Bollinger band at 1587 and 30-d SMA (1584). A violation of 1584 will drive KLCI lower towards 40 & 50-d SMAs at 1577 and 1571 respectively.

Daily KLCI - Sideways Consolidation
FBM KLCI 12-04-2012



Source: HLIB Research

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Dow Jones Tumbles 125 Points On Negative Economic News

Wall Street Recap: Dow Jones tumbles 125 points on negative economic news
The Dow Jones experienced a 2nd day selldown as a positive ADP report failed to stem concern about a pathetic Spain’s bond sale, a weaker-than-expected ISM servicing index and diminishing hopes of QE3.

The Dow Jones plunged as much as 179 points before narrowing the losses to 125 points at 13075 as the market is looking for an excuse to pause and digest the strong rally in 1Q12.

Wall Street outlook: More healthy pullback
After surging to 52-week high at 13297 on 2 April 12 from 52-wk low of 10404 on 4 October 11, the Dow Jones began its long overdue pullback to close at 13075 yesterday. Technical indicators are showing divergence signals, with a possibility that an uptrend could end and a reversal pattern is in the pipeline. If prices fail to push above the wedge resistance over the next few days, selling pressure could accelerate and take prices lower.

As the 30-d SMA support was violated, the Dow Jones could head lower towards 12970 (50-d SMA) and 12926 (lower Bollinger band) before technical rebound emerge. Current rally will be disrupted if the uptrend line support from October 11 near 12800 is broken. Resistance levels are situated at 13297 to 13350 (upper Bollinger band).

Daily Dow Jones - Wild Swings Ahead As 30-Days SMA Support Is Violated
DowJones05-04-2012



Source: StockCharts.com

FBM KLCI Outlook: More Volatility Ahead

Bursa Recap: KLCI closes below 1600 psychological mark
Asian markets declined in lackluster trading as HSI, SHCOMP and TWSE were closed for a holiday. Investors reacted negatively amid fading hopes of more monetary stimulus by Fed, sluggish Spanish bond auction and an unexpected Australian trade deficit. Tracking regional losses, KLCI snapped its 4-day winning streak with a 7.4 points drop to 1559.3.

Losers thumped gainers by 2 to 1 while trading volume and value retraced 5% and 19% to 1.2 billion shares worth RM1.1 billion respectively, as investors remained on the sidelines given the lack of fresh catalysts and election fears.

FBM KLCI Outlook: More volatility ahead
In the wake of sluggish overnight Wall St and European markets, deteriorating technical readings and renewed fears of a prolonged EU debt crisis amid disappointed Spain’s debt sale, KLCI is likely to face more volatility ahead of the looming general election. Immediate resistance remains at 1600-1630.

Immediate supports are 10-day SMA (1591) and mid Bollinger band (1583). A breakdown below 1583 will drive KLCI lower towards supports at the 30 and 50 day SMAs at 1579 and 1565 respectively. We reiterate that investors should take opportunity of a sideway market to top-slice and turn more defensive/nimble.

Daily KLCI - More Weakness Ahead Following The Evening Doji Star Formation
FBM KLCI 05-04-2012



Source: HLIB Research

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

FBM KLCI Outlook: Cautious Sentiment To Prevail

Bursa Recap: KLCI drops 4.4 points, tracking sluggish regional markets
Led by a 2.7% plunge on SHCOMP, Asian markets were lower following announcement that National Bureau of Statistics showed a 5.2% slump in profits for China’s state enterprise combined earnings during the first two months of the year. Sentiment was cautious as risk-shy investors await fresh leads on growth prospects for the U.S. durable goods orders after a sluggish March’s consumer confidence index on Tuesday.

KLCI also lost 4.4 points, led by CIMB (-12 sen to RM7.50), IOICORP (-9 sen to RM5.28), TENAGA (-7 sen to RM6.42), MAYBANK (-2 sen to RM8.83) and PETGAS (-14 sen to
RM16.76).

FBM KLCI Outlook: Cautious sentiment to prevail
The KLCI is holding well above the uptrend line support or 30-d SMA (1572) during recent market consolidations. Looking at the chart, we believe prices could still make one more push towards historical high at 1597, but sustainability is suspect.

The key risk is that, if the candles fail to hold above the 1572 level, then most probably it will fall back towards 1549 (16 February pivot low).

Strategy wise, investors should capitalize further rallies to take profits and stay nimble, in the wake of volatile external markets as well as ahead of the looming 13th general election.

Daily KLCI - Crucial Uptrend Line (UTL) Support Near 30-Days SMA
FBM KLCI 29-03-2012



Source: HLIB Research

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

CPO: Poised To Retest RM3500-3600 Resistances

Commodity to watch: CPO

CPO: Poised to retest RM3500-3600 resistances

CPO prices jumped 1% to RM3459/MT (+8.9% YTD) amid positive news by SGS that for the first 25 days of March, exports of Malaysian palm oil products rose 6.6% to 1,055,071 tonnes from a month ago, while Intertek Testing Services said exports
gained 7.7% to 1,068,774 tonnes. The uptrend is also in line with the overall bullish CPO forecasts by the industrial experts (ranging from RM3000-4500) during the Palm Oil Conference in March. Current prices are also trading at 5.7% above 2011’s average of RM3274 and 8.1% of YTD average of RM3200.

In view of the bullish technical readings, there could be further upside to retest RM3500-3600 zones before profit taking consolidations emerge. Medium to long term significant resistance targets are RM3900-4000.

Short term supports are RM3334 (mid Bollinger band), RM3304 (30-d SMA) and RM3241 (50-d SMA). Uptrend will be disrupted if prices break below RM3241.

Daily CPO - Bullish Technicals May Spur Prices Higher Towards RM3504-RM3682
CPO 27-03-2012

Weekly CPO - Bullish Flag Candle Signals Medium Term Upside Near RM3900-RM4000
CPO 27-03-2012a


Source: HLIB Research

Dow Jones - The White Marubozu Candle Could Signal Further Upside

Wall Street Recap: Dow Jones rallies 1.2% on Fed’s liquidity pledge…
…ignoring the negative news that the Spanish government failed to secure a majority in an election last Sunday and PM’s difficulty in implementing austerity measures to cut the country’s deficit. Italy’s PM said Spain could reignite the euro-zone debt crisis if it fails to impose adequate austerity measures.

The Dow Jones rebounded 120 points or 1.2% following last week’s 1.1% slump. The rally was driven by a strong German’s business climate index, speculation that the EU’s meeting on 30 March will increase the size of its bailout fund and Bernanke’s pledge for continued accommodative policy to reduce joblessness.

Daily Dow Jones - The White Marubozu Candle Could Signal Further Upside
DowJones27-03-2012



Source: StockCharts.com

Monday, March 26, 2012

Wall Street Recap: Dow Jones Rebounds 35 Points But Still Lower 1.1% wow

Wall Street Recap: Dow Jones rebounds 35 points but still lower 1.1% wow
The Dow Jones dropped as much as 43 points intraday amid weaker global manufacturing PMIs from China, France and Germany couple with declining U.S. Jan new homes sales.

However, the Dow Jones ended the day with a +34 points gain as a 1.4% surge in oil prices spurred energy shares, following report that Iranian crude exports could reduce by 30k barrels/day as buyers have stopped or scaled back purchases amid tightening sanctions by the West over a dispute over Tehran’s nuclear program.

Daily Dow Jones - Down Range Bound Trading Within 50-Days SMA And Upper Bollinger Band
DowJones26-03-2012



Source: StockCharts.com

Genting: Poised To Climb Higher Amid An Impending Golden Cross In MACD

Stock to watch: GENTING (RM:11.00 BUY on weakness)

Genting: Poised to climb higher amid an impending golden cross in MACD


Last Friday, Genting ended +26sen to RM11.00 as volume jumped nearly 5 folds to 12.4m shares. The surge was driven by positive expectation of improving Genting Singapore results with the help of the recently-approved junket licenses as it will bring in more customers into the casino, especially from the VIP segment.

In the wake of improving technical readings. Genting is likely to stage a breakout at the downtrend line from the 52-wk high of RM11.78 (29 Apr 11). A strong DTL breakout will spur Genting prices higher from the rectangle consolidation to retest higher resistance near weekly upper channel at RM11.60. Immediate supports are RM10.76 (50-d SMA), RM10.60 (Mar’s low) and Rm10.47 (200-d SMA). Cut loss below RM10.47.

Daily Genting - Poised For A Breakout Above Downtrend Line Near RM11.20
Genting 26-03-2012

Weekly Genting - Likely To Retest Upper Channel Near RM11.60
Genting 26-03-2012a



Source: HLIB Research

KLCI: Weak Overseas Markets Could Cap Further KLCI Gains

Bursa Recap: KLCI up 2.9 points for a 5th straight gain
Last Friday, Asian markets were rattled by slowing factory activities in China, Germany and France that could spark fresh concerns over global economic growth.

Bucking regional peers, the KLCI was up 2.6 points to 1585.8 and recorded a weekly gain of 0.9% (after two straight weekly losses), as local funds returned to prop up selected index heavyweights. However, trading volume plunged 30% and gainers/losers ratio was bearish at 0.5x after the authorities prevented proprietary and day-trading by certain brokers in selected highly speculative stocks.

FBM KLCI Outlook: Weak overseas markets could cap further KLCI gains
Due to improving daily and monthly technical readings ahead of the 1Q window dressing activities, there could be one more upleg to retest 1597 (historical high) if YTD high of 1595 (5 Mar) is violated this week. Otherwise, the market is expected to stay ranged bound. Key supports are mid Bollinger band (1575), uptrend line (UTL) or 30-d SMA (1570) and 40-d SMA (1561).

In the wake of the renewed concern of global economic health, the EU leaders meeting at Copenhagen this weekend as well as the 13th general election, we advice investors to capitalize further rallies to trim their shareholdings and stay nimble amid volatile external markets.

Daily KLCI - One More Upleg To Challenge 1600-1630 Likely As indicators Hook Up
FBM KLCI 26-03-2012


Monthly KLCI - Short To Medium Term Upside Remains Positive As MACD Golden Cross Is In The Making

FBM KLCI 26-03-2012a



Source: HLIB Research

Axiata Berhad: Much Anticipated Disengagement

26 March 2012
Price Target: RM5.02
Share Price: RM5.12


News
# Local daily reported that U Mobile has submitted a request to terminate its domestic roaming (DR) agreement with Celcom Axiata last week.

# U Mobile is currently serving its notice of termination for 6 months, thus effective data of termination will be in mid-September but may also be earlier upon both parties’
agreements.

# The article also expects that U Mobile to ink a new DR agreement with another operator over the next 6 months.

Financial impact
Celcom’s earnings to be eroded by RM150-200m annually with the following breakdown:
1. Leasing of connection (E1) – RM8.5-9m per month; and
2. Usage based (mins/MB) – RM4-7.5m per month.

Comments
# This news did not surprise us at all as we have flagged this concern in our report titled “Celcom Breaking Up with U Mobile” dated on 24th Oct 2011.

# This event is very much anticipated as it is technically more feasible (less network signaling load and unnecessary handover) and operationally more economical (lower fixed monthly connection rental) to engage with one DR partner rather than two who have overlapped coverage.

# Hence, it is unlikely that U Mobile to ink a separate 2G DR agreement with another telco since the existing 3G DR agreement with Maxis has already provided 81% coverage
of Malaysia and service fallback to 2G should be inclusive.

# U Mobile’s 10-year partnership with Maxis which also include future LTE rollout has created conflict of interest in its current relationship with Celcom who has teamed up with DiGi.

# We do not expect Celcom to terminate this agreement earlier as payment from U Mobile contributes directly to its bottom line with negligible OPEX.

Catalysts
- Higher smartphone penetration boosting data ARPU.
- Strong growth in low penetration developing markets.
- More cost savings from collaboration with DiGi.

Risks
Regulatory risks, FOREX fluctuations and competitive risks.

Forecasts
Unchanged as we have already factored this into our model.

Rating: HOLD, Target Price: RM5.02
Positives
Despite the challenging 4Q11, Axiata’s main businesses (Celcom, XL, Dialog) continue to execute well.

Negatives
Exposure to Indian telecom market which is currently under close scrutiny by the government.

Valuation
We reiterate our HOLD call with unchanged target price of RM5.02. We opine that the robust growth story may have come to an end especially for Celcom and XL who are the
main contributors as market matures and competition intensifies.



Source: HLIB Research

Friday, March 23, 2012

Genting Berhad: Junket Programmes In RWS

23 March 2012
Price Target: RM11.50
Share Price: RM10.76


News
# According to Business Times Singapore, Casino Regulatory Authority (CRA) has awarded junket licenses to two Malaysians operators (Huang Yu Kiung and Low Chong Aun) to allow casino operators to extend their international reach. This is given after a series of stringent checks on their background and financial positions.

# CRA said that the regime to regulate the junket operators has “been enhanced to ensure its gaming environment continues to be tightly regulated and free from criminal influence”.

# Apart from these two operators, the CRA is still evaluating other applications and is in the midst of conducting probity checks. It has rejected twelve applications so far.

Comments
# This newsflow is positive to GenT indirectly as Genting Singapore (GenS) now has the right to carry out junket programmes in RWS. These licenses are valid for a year.

# With this official permits, these two Malaysian operators will now be allowed to bring in high rollers to the casinos in RWS for a commission. However, they are only allowed to bring in foreigners and not allowed to target the local community.

# We expect GenS to be able to experience better earnings growth going forward with the help of the recently-approved junket licenses as it will bring in more customers into the casino, especially from the VIP segment.

# As for RWS’s competitor, Marina Bay Sands (MBS), it still does not have access to licensed junkets. Hence, we are positive that RWS will be able to overtake MBS in its market share once the junket programme is implemented.

Risks
1) Regulatory risk;
2) Weaker hold percentage;
3) Pandemic breakouts;
4) Appreciation of RM;
5) Higher-than-expected cannibalisation from Marina Bay Sands (MBS) and Macau casinos; 6) RWS’s junket license not renewed after a year.

Forecasts
Forecasts remained unchanged.

Rating - BUY, Target Price: RM11.50
Positives
(1) Defensive stock; and
(2) New sources of earnings from international markets to drive earnings growth.

Negatives
(1) Highly regulated industry; and
(2) Leisure and hospitality’s earnings highly dependable on luck factor and hold percentage.

Valuation
Target price remain unchanged at RM11.50 based on SOP valuation. Maintain BUY.



Source: HLIB Research

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Dow Jones Up 38 Points For A 4th Straight Gain

Wall Street Recap: Dow Jones up 38 points for a 4th straight gain
Despite the alarming China’s trade deficit news, Dow held up well with a 38 points gain ahead of the FOMC announcement tonight as well as the eurozone finance ministers meeting in Brussels today (which is likely to approve the terms of Greece's second bailout).

Trading volume was thin as investors await some key economic releases i.e. February retail sales (tonight), Feb IPI/March consumer sentiment (16 March).

Overall, the Dow Jones’ near term outlook remains stable, driven by expectations of improving economic data, the Fed’s reinforcement of exceptionally low long-term interest rates until 2014 and the possibility of additional stimulus via sterilized bond-buying program.

The sterilized bond-buying program is designed to drive down long term interest rates to boost economic activity by buying mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries.

Daily Dow Jones - More Range Bound Trading Within The Upper Bollinger Band And 50-Days SMA
DowJones13-03-2012



Source: StockCharts.com

KLCI: More Profit Taking Consolidation With Short Term Support At 1549-1558 Levels

Bursa Recap: KLCI skids 14.3 points or 0.9%, worse than regional peers
Asian shares ended lower on Monday after China recorded its biggest trade deficit in 12 years as exports grew at a slower rate than expected in February, overshadowing a rebound in Japan’s machinery orders and a resilient U.S. jobs data.

Tracking the weak regional performances, sluggish Jan IPI report (+0.2% yoy and -3.1% mom) and fears of a possible dissolution of Parliament (when it resumed yesterday) that would pave the way for a general election in May/June triggered the sharp profit taking correction to KLCI.

FBM KLCI Outlook: More profit taking consolidation with short term supports at 1549-1558 levels
Following the KLCI’s sharp drop yesterday and its failure to hold above the mid Bollinger band support, we are changing our positive view on the market to cautious now as the 1.9% retracement from 5 March’s pivot high of 1594.7 (shy of its historical peak of 1,597) could be a trend reversal arising from a double-top formation.

Moving forward, the bears look stronger now as the KLCI is poised to retest lower key supports i.e. the uptrend line (UTL) or 30-d SMA near 1558 and 16 February’s low of 1549 amid weakening technical readings.

Further supports are lower Bollinger band (1545) and 50-d SMA (1541). If these levels are breached, it would eliminate all bullish potential.

Daily KLCI - More Downside Towards 50-Days SMA If The Crucial Uptrend Line Support Near 30-Days SMA Is Broken

FBM KLCI 13-03-2012



Source: HLIB Research

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Daily Dow Jones - Critical Uptrend Line Support Near 12400

Wall Street Recap: Dow Jones tumbles 204 points, the biggest drop YTD (Year-To-Date)
The long overdue pullback had finally arrived as Dow tumbled 204 points to 12759 overnight. The selldown was triggered by potential hard landing in China’s economy, weakening Euro zone PMI and fears of a damaging Greek debt default amid speculation Greek bondholders would avoid a planned debt restructuring scheduled on 8 Mar. A default would endanger debt-laden Italy and Spain. Greece is going to be in a situation where they may default and may drag the other PIIGS. Meanwhile, the VIX, widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, jumped above 20 for the first time since mid-February.

Daily Dow Jones - Critical Uptrend Line Support Near 12400
DowJones07-03-2012



Source: StockCharts.com

Hang Seng Index Outlook: More Downside Consolidation

Hang Seng index outlook: More downside consolidation
After rebounding from 52-wk low of 16170 (4 October 11) to as high as 21717 (29 February 12), HSI (Hang Seng Index) retreated 4.2% to end at 20806 yesterday, after China set a lower target for growth this year, raising fears of a hard-landing in the mainland economy.

The saucer base rally that started in October 11 is likely to come to a halt, and prolong a downward correction for HSI, reflected by the bearish technical readings and rounding top formation chart.

Immediate supports are the horizontal support (AB) near the 200-d SMA (20243), 50-d SMA (20166) and 20,000 psychological barrier. Critical support is the uptrend line (UTL) near 100-d SMA (19471).

A breakdown below the UTL (Up-Trend-Line) will spur more selldown towards 18000 levels.

Daily Hang Seng Index HSI - Technical Indicators Are Poised For A Pullback
Hang Seng Index 07-03-2012


Source: HLIB Research
AA Stocks

KLCI Is Taking Cue From Panic Overseas Markets

Bursa Recap: KLCI up 0.7-point on last minute buying support
Triggered by massive losses in HSI (-2.2%), STI (-2%) and SHCOMP (-1.7%), Asian markets were in red on renewed fears of a hard landing in China’s economy after the country cuts its 2012 GDP growth target to an 8-year low of 7.5%.

Sentiment was also dampened by concerns over a Greek default ahead of its debt-swap deal on 8 March and a sluggish Feb euro-zone PMI of 49.3 (consensus: 49.7; Jan:50.4).

Tracking the regional slump, KLCI declined as much as 8 points intraday before rebounding to end +0.7-point at 1589.9, spurred by last minute buying of selected bluechips.

FBM KLCI Outlook: Taking cue from panic overseas markets
After hitting 1594.7 on 5 March (within our envisaged immediate 1590-1600 resistance zones), broader market sentiment has turned cautious, reflected by the weakening gainers/losers ratios, declining trading volume and the flattening RSI and slow stochastic indicators.

On top of that, the overnight plunge on Wall St and Europe markets are likely to further dampen investors’ sentiment and disrupt the upside momentum for the next few days. Immediate supports are 1574 (7-d SMA) and 1566 (14-d SMA), followed by crucial uptrend line near 1551 (30-d SMA). (mid Bollinger band).

Daily KLCI - Critical Uptrend Line Support Near 1550 To Prevent Further Selldown
FBM KLCI 07-03-2012



Source: HLIB Research

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Wall Street Outlook: Dow Jones Primed For A Pullback

Wall Street Recap: Dow Jones dips 15 points, recovering from as much as -94 points
The Dow Jones declined as much as 94 points in the early session after China announced the lowest economic growth target since 2004 and European services and manufacturing output was less than earlier estimated.

However, bargain hunting activities recouped the Dow Jones’ losses to only 15 points amid encouraging economic data such as the February ISM non-manufacturing index and Jan factory orders.

Wall Street Outlook: Dow Jones primed for a pullback
The Dow Jones was unable to move higher after surging to 52-wk high of 13087 on 29 Feb. Subsequently, it retreated to as low as 12884 before closing at 12963 overnight on profit taking consolidation after surging 25% from 52-wk low of 10404 in October 2011. Technical indicators are showing divergence signals amid a rising wedge pattern.

The rising wedge pattern is characterized by higher highs and higher lows with a contracting range, signaling an uptrend could end and a reversal pattern is in the pipeline. If prices fail to push above the wedge resistance over the next few days, selling pressure could accelerate and take prices lower.

A breakdown below uptrend line support near lower Bollinger band (12790) will spur more downside towards 12665 (50-d SMA). More solid support is near 12383 (weekly mid Bollinger band). Resistance levels are situated at 13087 to 13316 (weekly
upper Bollinger band).

Daily Dow Jones - Momentum Fizzling Out Amid Divergence Signals
DowJones06-03-2012

Weekly Dow Jones - Technical Indicators Are Poised For A Pullback
DowJones06-03-2012a



Source: StockCharts.com

Thursday, March 1, 2012

Daily Dow Jones - Likely To Consolidate Above The 30-Days SMA

Wall Street Recap: Dow Jones inches up 28 points from as much as 81 points
The Dow Jones jumped as much as 81 points to 13033 following a 4-year low weekly jobless claims report and personal income and spending coupled with a rally in banking shares. Bank shares rose in anticipation that the ECB’s massive liquidity injection
would ease the region's banking system and credit markets, and in time, will be positive for the European economy.

Nevertheless, the gains reduced to only 28 points amid a weak February ISM report and sharp gains in oil prices on unconfirmed report of an explosion in an unknown Saudi oil pipeline.

Daily Dow Jones - Likely To Consolidate Above The 30-Days SMA
DowJones02-03-2012



Source: StockCharts.com

KLCI: Higher Volume Is Needed For A More Sustainable Rally

Bursa Recap: KLCI up 3.8 points, bucking mixed regional bourses
Following a broad market rally on 29 February ahead of the fresh cash injection by the ECB, Asian markets closed mixed yesterday on profit taking amid diminishing expectations for further monetary easing by Bernanke coupled with still fragile
global PMI in Europe and China (despite improving m-o-m).

KLCI gained 3.8 points to 1573.5, lifted by selective purchase on bluechips i.e. SIME (+24 sen to RM9.93), PETCHEM (+5 sen to RM6.75), BAT (+90 sen to RM53.10), DIGI (+2 sen to RM4.04) and AMMB (+4 sen to RM6.17). However, overall volume was low at 1.62 biilion shares worth RM2.02 billion against Wednesday’s 1.94 billion shares worth RM2.69 billion. Market breadth was negative with 309 gainers as compared to 506 losers.

FBM KLCI Outlook: Higher volume is needed for a more sustainable rally
Amid the fresh injection of cheap money by the ECB, additional liquidity inflows are expected to stay firm in the near term, benefitting equities and currencies in the emerging markets.

We are cautiously optimistic that the recent breakout of 1567 (16 February’s high) will eventually spur KLCI to our new envisaged resistance 1590-1600 levels, albeit intermittent profit taking activities. However, higher volume (preferably over 2 billion shares/day) is essential for a sustainable rally.

Major supports are 1561 (10-d SMA), 1556 (mid Bollinger band) and 1544 (30-d SMA).

Daily KLCI - Technicals Are On The Mend
FBM KLCI 02-03-2012

Hourly KLCI - Overbought Technicals May Cap Further Strong Upside
FBM KLCI 02-03-2012a



Source: HLIB Research

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

KLCI To Retest 1590-1600 Points Due To Liquidity Driven Rally

Bursa Recap: KLCI jumps 0.83% to 8M high, tracking ASEAN bourses
Asian markets rose on hopes a fresh cash injection by the ECB will help further avert credit crunch and bolster investors’ confidence. Sentiment was also boosted by robust U.S. and German consumer confidence data and falling crude oil prices.

Powered by the liquidity inflows particularly into the ASEAN regions, the USD/RM finally breached below the RM3.00 psychological mark to end at 2.993, fueling the KLCI to soar 12.9 pts or 0.83% to 1569.7 (off intraday high: 1573.8). Notable gainers in ASEAN markets were JCI (2.1%), PSEi (1.6%), SET (1.3%) and STI (0.8%).

FBM KLCI Outlook: Likely to retest 1590-1600 points on liquidity driven rally
Thanks to the fresh injection of cheap money by the ECB, fresh liquidity inflows are expected to stay firm in the near term, benefitting equities and currencies in the emerging markets.

Amid the positive developments and a successful breakout of 15 Feb’s pivot high at 1567 yesterday, a resumption in rally post CNY (albeit intermittent profit taking consolidation) is likely for KLCI to eventually heading towards the 1590-1600 resistances.

Major supports are 1560 (14-d SMA), 1553 (mid Bollinger band) and 1542 (30-d SMA).

Daily KLCI - A Glimmer Of Hope To Retest The Upper Channel
FBM KLCI 01-03-2012



Source: HLIB Research

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Nymex crude oil: Still Upside Bias

Commodity to watch: Nymex crude oil

Nymex crude oil: Still upside bias


Crude oil prices jumped to a 9-month high above US$106/barrel after the International Atomic Energy Agency officials were denied access to an Iranian military base and said negotiations over the country’s nuclear program “couldn’t finalize a way forward.” Earlier, oil prices dipped to US$105/barrel on reports that manufacturing activity slowed in Europe and China, suggesting that fuel demand may decline.

Having said that, high crude oil prices are likely to be sustainable in the short term amid escalating tensions between Iran and Western nations coupled with liquidity injection since Dec 11 which spurred big infusion of speculative capital into riskier assets. Iran said earlier this week that it stopped selling crude to France and Britain in a move designed to pre-empt European sanctions. The European Union on 23 Jan agreed to ban crude imports from Iran starting 1 July to pressure the country over its nuclear program.

Looking at the chart, if prices can maintain above the long term downtrend line since all time high in June 2008 (US$145/barrel), it may continue to climb towards US$115/barrel after a brief sideways profit taking consolidation. Further resistance is US125/barrel (23.6% FR). Immediate supports are US$94-100.

Daily Oil - Rally May Continue For A While After The Saucers Formation
Nymex Crude Oil 23-02-2012

Weekly Oil - A Breakout Above The Downtrend Line Will Spur Greater Heights
Nymex Crude Oil 23-02-2012a



Source: StockCharts.com
Nasdaq.com

Wall Street Recap: Dow Jones Takes A Breather

Wall Street Recap: Dow Jones takes a breather
The Dow Jones drifted lower by 27 points to 12939 amid doubts over the latest bailout for Greece after Fitch slashed its rating and said that a default is “highly likely in the near term.”

Sentiment was also dampened by concern of the health of global economic recovery following a report that the euro zone's service sector shrank unexpectedly in February. Adding to market negativity, China's manufacturing sector contracted for the 4th consecutive month in February.

DowJones23-02-2012



Source: StockCharts.com

FBM KLCI: Market Turns Cautious

Bursa Recap: KLCI down 3.3 points, snapping its 3-day rally
Asian markets ended mixed amid concerns of rising crude oil price and about the long-term feasibility of the Greek bailout after Fitch slashed its rating for Greek sovereign debt to “C” from “CCC,” indicating that default is “highly likely in the near term.”

Tracking regional markets, KLCI lost 3.3 points to 1560.5, dragged by plantation stocks such as IOICORP (-10 sen to RM5.34), PPB (-50 sen to RM17.14) and KLK (-36 sen to RM23.64) amid a disappointing Wilmar 4Q11 results. Market breadth was negative with 302 gainers as compared to 541 losers.

FBM KLCI Outlook: Market turns cautious
It seems the market is taking a breather and waiting for its next catalyst after the fine run YTD. A period of consolidation or even a slight pullback wouldn't be surprising given the overbought market conditions.

Overall, the rebound from 16 Feb’s low of 1549 points continues to be weak as broader market turns more cautious and trading volume shrank, suggesting that the rally is running out of steam. The KLCI is still below our envisaged resistance channels of 1570-1580 points. Supports fall on 14-d SMA (1554), 1550 and mid Bollinger band (1543).

Daily KLCI - Moving Range Bound Within The Uptrend Channel
FBM KLCI 23-02-2012



Source: HLIB Research

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Maxis Berhad: Sukuk and Broadband Tax Incentive

17 February 2012
Price Target: RM5.54
Share Price: RM5.77


Highlights
# In a filing to Bursa Malaysia, Maxis proposed to establish an Unrated Islamic MTN Programme with an aggregate value of up to RM2.45bn and tenure of 30 years from the date of first issue of the sukuk.

# First issuance of the sukuk is for RM2.45bn with maturity of 10 years for the following usage:
1. RM1.45 billion for refinancing of existing loans; and
2. RM1 billion for CAPEX / working capital and other general purposes.

# Similar to DiGi, Maxis also announced that it enjoys last mile broadband tax incentive of total RM320m, comprising of:
1. RM223 million in respect of prior years; and
2. RM97 million for the 9 months ended 30 September 2011.

# The tax credit in respect of prior years will be refunded over a period of 5 years commencing 2012.

Comments
# The consolidated gearing will increase from 0.63x to 0.75x on proforma basis, based on 2010 audited accounts.

# The tax benefit is perceived to be positive to Maxis relieving NGBB’s front-loaded high CAPEX and cost. After some channel checking, Maxis NGBB business is not "flying” as Maxis has only managed to secure about 4,000 subscribers to date.

# Tax incentive of RM97m for 9M11 translates into 23% effective tax rate (vs assumed tax rate of 26%) and directly boost earnings for FY11. We have assumed 23% for FY12
and FY13 as well.

# Tax credit in respect of prior years is assumed to further reduce tax by RM44.6m for FY12-FY16.

Catalysts
- Higher smartphone penetration boosting data ARPU
- Stronger than expected home fibre internet take up rate

Risks
Government, regulatory, industry and execution risks.

Forecasts
Updated forecast with above mentioned assumptions. As a result, EPS for FY11 to FY13 are revised upward by 8.8%, 4.1% and 1.2% respectively.

Rating : Hold, Target Price: RM5.54
Positives
New business potential in converged services, strong postpaid ARPUs and smartphone penetration.

Negatives
Initially low margin fixed-services would depress profitability, weakening prepaid ARPUs

Valuation
We upgraded our DD-derived Target Price by 2.8% to RM5.54 from RM5.39 with WACC of 7.5% and TG of 0%.



Source: HLIB Research

Dow Jones Rebounds On Strong Economic Data

Wall Street Recap: Dow Jones rebounds on strong economic data
The Dow Jones jumped 123 points or 1% to 3-year high at 12904, recouping 15 Feb’s 0.8% decline, amid positive economic data from weekly jobless claims, February Philadelphia manufacturing index and Jan builders permits, discounting Moody’s warning to put 17 global banks and 114 European financial institutions on review for possible downgrades.

Sentiment also improved on unconfirmed report that the ECB is swapping its Greek bonds for new ones to ensure it is not forced to take losses in a debt restructuring. European governments are also considering cutting interest rates on emergency loans to Greece and using contributions from the ECB.

Daily Dow Jones -Likely To Find Good support Near Crucial Uptrend Line
DowJones17-02-2012



Source: StockCharts.com

1550 Crucial Support Level For KLCI

Bursa Recap: KLCI tumbles nearly 11 points amid regional fall
Asian markets were in red amid news that Moody’s may cut the credit ratings of 17 global and 114 European financial institutions as the Eurozone government debt crisis is spreading throughout the global financial systems. Investors are also frustrated amid the deadlock in cementing a crucial bailout for stricken Greece.

Tracking regional losses, KLCI tumbled 10.8 points to 1550.5, led by blue chips i.e. TENAGA (-13 sen to RM6.00), PBBANK (-12 sen to RM13.64), DIGI (-6 sen to RM4.10), SIME (-7 sen to RM9.54) and KLK (-58 sen to RM24.80).

FBM KLCI Outlook: 1550 Crucial Support Level
Overnight Dow Jones’ rally is expected to lift our market to stay above the crucial 1550 psychological support. This level is crucial for sustainability as a close below would likely confirm the reversal and send the index back towards lower supports near 14-d SMA (1542), mid Bollinger band (1535) and 30-d SMA or uptrend line
at 1529.

Immediate resistance levels are situated at 7-d SMA (1560), 15 February’s high of 1567 and upper Bollinger band (1574).

Daily KLCI - Downside Risk Increases But Should Be Well-Supported Near Uptrend Line Near 30-Days SMA
FBM KLCI 17-02-2012




Source: HLIB Research

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Dow Jones- Uptrend Is Loosing Steam Amid A Rising Wedge Pattern

Wall Street Recap: Dow Jones falters on Greece debt impasse and Fed minutes
The Dow Jones inched up 21 points higher in the opening amid better-than-expected Feb home builders index and Empire state index reports, China’s commitment in buying Eurobonds and lower-than-expected decline in euro-zone economy.

However, the gains were erased and the Dow Jones finally dropped 97 points after the FOMC’s minutes from its 24-25 January meeting showed only a few members of the policy-setting panel favored another round of quantitative easing while the decision slated for Greek’s €130 billion of aid was postponed again.

Daily Dow Jones- Uptrend Is Loosing Steam Amid A Rising Wedge Pattern
DowJones16-02-2012



Source: StockCharts.com

KLCI: Crucial 1550 Support To Sustain Rally

Bursa Recap: KLCI ends 4.8 points lower on profit taking consolidation
Asian markets were higher, led by NIKKEI (2.3%), HSI (2.1%) and SENSEX (2%) as sentiment was boosted by hopes that Greece would deliver on a commitment to enact harsh reforms, the unexpected injection of ¥325bn by Bank of Japan to bolster growth coupled with China’s pledge to continue to invest in eurozone government debt.

Bucking the regional uptrend, KCLI moderated 4.8 points to 1561.3 as blue chips remained in profit taking consolidation mode.

FBM KLCI Outlook: Crucial 1550 support
In order to sustain current rally to our envisaged resistance targets of 1570-1580, the KLCI must maintain its posture above 1550 points for the next 2-3 days amid heavy deliveries (last week’s average daily volume of 3.7bn shares).

Following overnight Dow Jones’s fall, the KLCI is likely to continue its consolidation for a while. Immediate supports are 7-d SMA (1558), followed by 10-d SMA (1548). A breakdown below 10-d SMA would likely confirm a reversal and send the index back towards 1534 (mid Bollinger band) and 1527 (30-d SMA).

Daily KLCI - A Breakdown Below 10-Days SMA Will Trigger More Selldown
FBM KLCI 16-02-2012



Source: HLIB Research

Thursday, February 9, 2012

Dow Jones Heading Towards 13000

Wall Street Recap: Dow Jones inches up 6 points ahead of Greece final talks
Given the lack of U.S. economic data overnight, the Dow Jones inched 6 points higher to 12884 as investors continued to monitor developments in Greece, where talks on austerity reforms have been delayed several times this week.

Meanwhile, Euro-area finance ministers are due to gather today in an emergency meeting in Brussels as the Greek government pushes to complete talks on terms of a rescue.

Dow Jones Heading Towards 13000
DowJones09-02-2012



Source: StockCharts.com

Stock to watch: AMMB (RM:5.96 Trading Buy)

Stock to watch: AMMB (RM:5.96 Trading Buy)

AMMB to retest 200-d SMA

AMMB prices tumbled from 52-wk high at RM7.18 on 6 January 2011 to a low of RM5.30 on 26 September 2011. Thereafter, it was trapped in range bound trade within the RM5.45-6.05 region.

AMMB is consolidating upwards along the uptrend line formed since September 11 low. Following the triangle breakout, AMMB could test higher ground over the next few sessions with immediate resistance at RM6.15 (200-d SMA).

A more bullish outlook would only appear if share price manages to close consistently above the 200-d SMA. The next upside targets are RM6.23 (50% FR) and RM6.46 (38.2% FR).

5.86 (100-d SMA), RM5.82 (mid Bollinger band) and RM5.71 (lower Bollinger band). Cut loss below RM5.71.

Daily AMMB - A Positive Triangle Breakout Will Lead To Further Advance Towards Downtrend Line Resistance
AMMB 09-02-2012

Weekly AMMB - Upside Targets Near RM6.23 - RM6.46 Levels
AMMB 09-02-2012a



Source: HLIB Research

KLCI To Retest 1570 Zones After Filling The 1529-1546 Gap

Bursa Recap: KLCI jumps 14.4 points to 6-month high
Asian bourses hit their highest levels in more than five months as investors kept alive hopes for an agreement of a new Greek bailout package despite further delays. Sentiment was also boosted on speculation of slowing inflation report today will provide more leeway for the China central bank to ease monetary policy. Top gainers were SHCOMP (2.4%), followed by TWSE (2.1%) and HSI (1.5%).

Tracking the bullish regional tone, KLCI surged 14.4 points or 0.9% to 1553.2, supported by a 54% surge in daily volume to 4.4bn shares valued at RM3.3 billion.

FBM KLCI Outlook: To retest 1570 zones after the 1550 breakout
Renewed buying interest on index-linked stocks after recent consolidation and persistent active retail participation on lower liners, ACE and penny stocks are expected to sustain KLCI rally in the short term, in anticipation of positive progress on Greece debt talk, acceleration in ETP projects rollout, continuous funds inflows and stronger global manufacturing data.

Immediate supports are 1542 (upper Bollinger band) and 1530 (31 Dec 11) whilst resistance levels are the upper channel near 1570-1580 zones.

KLCI To Test The Upper Channel Amid Bullish Technicals
FBM KLCI 09-02-2012



Source: HLIB Research

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

KLCI To Retest 1550 Zones After The 1530 Breakout

Bursa Recap: KLCI inched 1.7 points ahead of long holiday break
The SHCOMP tumbled 1.7% yesterday to lead most major Asian markets down as investors were disappointed by lack of monetary policy easing. Sentiment was also bruised amid slow progress in Greek debt talks.

Last Friday, KLCI inched up 1.7 points to end at 1538.9 ahead of the extended long holidays on 6 & 7 Feb for the Birthday of Prophet Muhammad and Thaipusam. WoW, KLCI rose 17.9 points or 1.2% wow to stage a bullish breakout to a fresh 7-month high.

FBM KLCI Outlook: To retest 1550 zones after the 1530 breakout
As KLCI continued to stay decisively above major SMAs support levels, it is poised to unfold a follow-through rebound. Following last week’s rally that partially filled the large gap of 1,529-1,546 points, the index may continue its ascending trend today to retest immediate resistance target at 1550.

Immediate supports are 1530 (31 Dec 11), 10-d SMA (1523) and 1520 (mid Bollinger band).

Daily KLCI - Upside Bias In Anticipation Of A MACD Golden Cross
FBM KLCI 08-02-2012



Source: HLIB Research
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